Is Kestrel a Safe Expert Advisor? Drawdown and Worst Float

Worst floating loss vs drawdown

A grid expert advisor adds to a losing position instead of closing it, so the usual risk numbers describe it badly; two measurements describe it properly, and they are not the same thing.

The worst floating loss is how far the open baskets were under water at their single worst instant; the drawdown is how far equity dropped below its own previous high. They rarely share a date — and the larger of the two, the worst case, is what the capital tables are built on.

A kestrel holds still in the wind instead of fleeing; the floating loss is the price of that hold, and here it is measured rather than hidden.

Kestrel EA is a grid expert advisor for MetaTrader 4: it opens from its own signal, adds to the basket in small, capped steps when price moves against it, and closes the whole basket together at its target; until the basket closes, the loss is floating. You choose one to four pairs — EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCAD and AUDCAD — and for each pair Patient, Active or both (the Full portfolio runs both AUDCAD variants): Patient adds to a basket less often and holds a smaller worst case; Active adds more often, returned more in the backtest and reached a larger worst case.

The worst moment of each record

Simulated on Dukascopy data, Horizon level, euros at fixed rates; each row states its own window:

Record	Period	Worst floating loss	Deepest fall from an equity peak	Worst case
EURUSD Patient	2010 – Sep 2026	−€2,788, 21 Aug 2024	€2,788	€2,788
EURCAD Patient	2014–2025	−€3,408, 13 Mar 2017	€3,386	€3,408
GBPUSD Patient	2010–2025	−€3,885, 14 Nov 2024	€3,873	€3,885
AUDCAD Patient	2010 – Sep 2026	−€3,703, 22 Oct 2012	€3,676	€3,703
EURUSD Active	2010 – Sep 2026	−€4,946, 18 May 2017	€4,927	€4,946
EURCAD Active	2014–2025	−€5,887, 13 Mar 2017	€5,864	€5,887
AUDCAD Active	2010 – Sep 2026	−€4,699, 13 Feb 2011	€4,676	€4,699
GBPUSD Active	2010–2025	−€7,122, 31 Jul 2020	€7,089	€7,122
K3	2010 – Sep 2026	−€3,704, 22 Oct 2012	€3,647	€3,704
K1	2010 – Sep 2026	−€4,701, 14 Feb 2011	€4,650	€4,701
Full portfolio	2010 – Sep 2026	−€6,165, 4 Mar 2016	€6,114	€6,165

In every published record the worst case is the floating reading, not the fall from a peak. For single records the deepest fall reads at about a third of the capital we recommend — that third is the construction (the recommendation is three times the worst case), not a property of the market; for portfolios the added-up recommendation sits further above the joint measurement.

The worst month and the worst basket

The published records closed between 90.6% and 97.5% of their months positive, each on its own window, simulated. The longest basket in the record ran 46.4 days on GBPUSD Patient, from 10 April to 26 May 2017; EURUSD’s longest ran 34.4 days in July–August 2013, EURCAD’s 27.8 days and GBPUSD Active’s 18.0 days. The longest stretch without a new equity high in the EURUSD record was 35 days.

Capital sized for the worst case

For a single record the recommended capital is three times the measured worst case: from €8,500 (EURUSD Patient) to €21,400 (GBPUSD Active) at Horizon level. For a combination it is the recommendations of its records added up — €22,500 for K3, €28,800 for K1 and €42,800 for the Full portfolio — because the worst days of different pairs did not fall together in this history, and the next episode has not happened yet.

The joint worst moment of each recommended combination, smaller than the separate ones added up, is published next to the recommendation on Kestrel Pair Combinations: What Fits Your Capital. We recommend, we never require — the account is yours. The full arithmetic is on Kestrel EA Risk Management and Capital for MT4 Portfolios.

What this means for your level

Summit scales the starting lot by five and Zenith by ten, so the same episode costs five or ten times as much and the recommended capital moves by the same factor. Level prices are €999, €4,999 and €9,999 per year, VAT included.

What these numbers do not cover: swap, commission, slippage and the broker stop-out — the balances at which it would have fired are on the capital page — and a future episode worse than any in the sample, which remains possible. Beyond the backtest, the software has run on two demo accounts since September 2026 — a forward test on demo, not a real account.

From here it is five steps: choose pairs and variant, choose the level whose recommended capital fits your account, buy the annual licence, install it on MT4 with its set file, and follow the record. The strategy behind the figures is on Kestrel Grid EA for MT4: Expert Advisor With Controlled Lots and the generic mechanics on Grid Trading Strategy: Rules, Risks and Lot Sizing.