Kestrel Expert Advisor Performance and Results

The record, all portfolios

Kestrel EA is a grid expert advisor for MetaTrader 4: it opens from its own signal, adds to the basket in small, capped steps when price moves against it, and closes the whole basket together at its target; until the basket closes, the loss is floating. You choose one to four pairs — EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCAD and AUDCAD — and for each pair Patient, Active or both (the Full portfolio runs both AUDCAD variants): Patient adds to a basket less often and holds a smaller worst case; Active adds more often, returned more in the backtest and reached a larger worst case.

Simulated on Dukascopy data, Horizon level, euros at fixed rates; returns and yearly figures are measured on the capital we recommend for each record, sorted by it:

Record	Period	Return	Yearly, on that capital	Worst floating loss	Capital we recommend
EURUSD Patient	2010 – Sep 2026	+309% of €8,500	18.5%	−€2,788, 21 Aug 2024	€8,500
EURCAD Patient	2014–2025	+144% of €10,300	12.0%	−€3,408, 13 Mar 2017	€10,300
GBPUSD Patient	2010–2025	+257% of €11,700	16.0%	−€3,885, 14 Nov 2024	€11,700
AUDCAD Patient	2010 – Sep 2026	+243% of €14,000	14.6%	−€3,703, 22 Oct 2012	€14,000
EURUSD Active	2010 – Sep 2026	+297% of €14,900	17.8%	−€4,946, 18 May 2017	€14,900
EURCAD Active	2014–2025	+128% of €17,700	10.6%	−€5,887, 13 Mar 2017	€17,700
AUDCAD Active	2010 – Sep 2026	+429% of €20,300	25.7%	−€4,699, 13 Feb 2011	€20,300
GBPUSD Active	2010–2025	+251% of €21,400	15.7%	−€7,122, 31 Jul 2020	€21,400
K3	2010 – Sep 2026	+268% of €22,500	16.0%	−€3,704, 22 Oct 2012	€22,500
K1	2010 – Sep 2026	+393% of €28,800	23.5%	−€4,701, 14 Feb 2011	€28,800
Full portfolio	2010 – Sep 2026	+344% of €42,800	20.6%	−€6,165, 4 Mar 2016	€42,800

For a single record the recommendation is three times its measured worst case; for a portfolio, the recommendations of its records added up. Every mix of pairs and variants, with the two stop-out floors and the joint reading beside the recommendation: Kestrel Pair Combinations: What Fits Your Capital.

What runs today

Two demo accounts on a VPS, running Kestrel v2.2 since September 2026: one on K3 at Horizon level, one on K1 at Summit level. It is a forward test on demo — not a real account — and we do not publish its balances.

What the worst moment cost

The deepest single moment in the record was the Full portfolio floating −€6,165 on 4 March 2016. Like the kestrel that hangs still in the wind, the strategy holds through that kind of episode and closes the basket once — the cost of the hold is the floating loss, and it is published, not hidden.

What this means for your account

Horizon starts at €999 per year (VAT included) and recommends €8,500 for the smallest record and €42,800 for the Full portfolio; Summit and Zenith scale every figure by five and by ten.

From here it is five steps: choose pairs and variant, choose the level whose recommended capital fits your account, buy the annual licence, install it on MT4 with its set file, and follow the record. Every figure carries its date, its feed and the word simulated, and a future episode worse than any in the record remains possible.